Over the past few weeks I have been travelling all over the UK visiting farms with Aberdale ewes. The difference in climate and grass growth has varied considerably this season, with a very noticeable difference in the west of the country compared with the east and central regions.
Being based in Aberystwyth we are used to our fair share of rain, and despite weather records suggesting that Wales has had it's driest summer in many years, you would not believe that in western counties like Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire (since May). The grass growth curve for the year seems to have shifted from the 'typical' season in these wetter areas, with generally more grass growth earlier in the season but less of a peak in May, and more grass going into the autumn than usual. Visits to Cumbria and the Scottish Borders indicate the same trend, with one farmer in the borders telling me that he has not seen a season with so much grass growth since 1985.
However this has not been the case in eastern areas of Wales, the midlands, eastern and southern England, with many areas experiencing a drought. In stark contrast to the west of the country, many farmers in these regions have been crying out for rain and many have been feeding stock over the summer period. Farms using brassica crops and drought tolerant plants such as chicory to finish lambs over the summer have benefitted, with these crops far outperforming ryegrass. Many areas have now had rain and the grass is freshening up.
In terms of managing Aberdale ewes, neither scenario is ideal for maintaining ewes at around condition score 3 over the tupping period. Ewes that I have seen in the wetter areas with plenty of grass are generally too fat, and will struggle to lose any condition over the coming month. This is likely to result in high scanning percentages this year, especially for ewes tupping in early to mid October when the ewes are at their optimum prolificacy for the season. In areas where it has been dry and feed has been limited, ewes are in ideal condition for tupping or are slightly on the lean side. Many farmers that I have spoken to have commented that non-flushing will be easy this year. However; we experienced similar conditions last year where grass availability was poor until rain came in mid September. This caused a flush or grass, and as a result ewes flushed and many scanned well above 200%.
Bearing this in mind, it seems sensible to expect scan results in excess of 200% in Aberdale ewes this season, but to be prepared for it by having ewes going into winter carrying enough condition to carry a heavy load of lambs and to rear twins (or triplets) next spring. Milk machines may be needed to rear cade lambs, or some extra work may be required to cross foster triplet lambs onto single bearing ewes. With the high lamb prices we have seen over the past two seasons, and with them predicted to remain high farmers can really reap the benefit from having extra lambs, provided that they are prepared and that an effective system is in place to deal with larger numbers of lambs this lambing.

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